🔍 How to Find Wallets
Not all wallets are worth copying — and choosing the wrong ones can drain your account fast.
Here's a simple checklist to help you identify strong, consistent wallets while avoiding high-risk or chaotic ones.
✅ Good Signs (Wallets You Do Want to Follow)
🟦 1. Fewer Than ~10 Active Positions
Wallets with a small number of open markets are usually more focused and easier to track.
They're less likely to overtrade or get stuck in long positions.
🟩 2. Consistent Buy → Win/Redeem Behavior
Look for traders who:
- Enter positions with intention
- Exit cleanly
- Show repeated patterns of profitable behavior
This is one of the strongest signals of skill.
⚠️ Important Warning: Win Rate Can Be Fake / Misleading
Polymarket does not reduce a wallet's win rate if they leave losing positions open and never claim them.
Some traders intentionally:
- ❌ Never close or redeem losing bets
- ✅ Only claim their winning positions
This creates an artificially inflated win rate — sometimes showing 95%–100% even if the trader has taken massive hidden losses.
🔍 What This Means for You
Do NOT judge a wallet based on win rate alone.
Instead, look at:
- Frequency of claimed vs unclaimed markets
- Total PnL over time
- Entry/exit discipline
- Whether the trader actually closes losing positions
A "100% win rate" wallet may actually be:
- Deeply negative in unrealized PnL
- Hiding large losses
- A dangerous wallet to follow
⚡ Always Treat Win Rate as a Soft Indicator - Never a Primary One
Use behavioral patterns, trade consistency, ratio suitability, and market types as your core evaluation criteria.
🟥 3. Focus on Short-Duration Markets
Great wallets often trade:
- 🏈 Sports
- ₿ Crypto movement markets
- 🔄 Recurring or time-bound events
Short-duration markets reduce the risk of being stuck for days or weeks.
🟩 4. Buys Smart, Avoids Time-Decay Traps (ESPECIALLY "Yes")
Many Polymarket markets decay heavily against the YES side. On time-decay markets, YES loses roughly ~80% of the time.
Strong traders know this and either:
- Avoid these markets entirely
- Take the NO side when decay is favorable
- Enter only at deeply discounted prices
⚠️ If a wallet constantly buys YES on long-running markets, it usually signals inexperience or poor strategy.
❌ Red Flags (Wallets You Don't Want to Follow)
🔴 1. Always Crossing the Spread (Always the Taker)
If a wallet buys at market instead of placing bids on the book, they pay the full spread every trade.
On a 4¢ spread, a trader buying high and selling low immediately loses 4¢ per cycle — which collapses profitability.
Good traders enter and exit on the bid.
If a wallet frequently "market buys/sells" in wide-spread markets, avoid them.
🔴 2. 50+ Transactions Per Day
Extreme activity = noise, not strategy.
These wallets often spam trades, bleed fees, and can drain your balance quickly.
🟠 3. Wildly Uneven Trade Sizes
Example:
- $10,000 on one trade
- $100 on another
This makes your ratio nearly impossible to match safely and can expose you to oversized risk.
🟤 4. Pure "In/Out" Traders
Wallets that buy and immediately sell just to scalp tiny profits are dangerous to copy.
They often lose to fees, slip on execution, and create chaotic trade logs.
🟣 5. Heavy Long-Duration Bets
Markets that take weeks/months to resolve:
- Lock up your capital
- Reduce flexibility
- Prevent you from copying active opportunities
Avoid wallets that constantly enter slow, long-horizon events.
🔴 6. Suspiciously High Win Rates (95%–100%)
If win rates look "too good to be true," they usually are.
Many wallets simply never claim their losing bets, which keeps their win rate artificially high.
🔴 7. Chasing News Events or Reacting Emotionally to Headlines
Wallets that FOMO-buy every news spike almost always underperform.
Markets typically revert after news unless the event resolves the question itself.
🚨 When you see a wallet repeatedly buying after big headlines, treat it as a red flag — this behavior is associated with large, repeated losses.